Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, the grand-old-party’s focus in the Southern states, and Karnataka’s Mallikarjun Kharge holding the reins of the Congress party, somewhere indicates that after decades, once again the South India may again become the power centre of Congress. However, the question which is being asked today is that if the Congress party would be able to regain its grounds in 2024!
Let’s have a look at what the facts and figures tell us:
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Bhartiya Janata party secured victory on 303 parliamentary constituencies. Furthermore, amongst these 303 seats, 25 were from the state of Karnataka. On the other hand, BJP won 18 seats in West Bengal and 17 in Bihar.
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However, since the victory of TMC in Bengal assembly elections held last year, and the recent political development in Bihar, makes it very tough for the saffron party to repeat its performance of 2019 in both these states. In that case, the numbers for the BJP would come down to in the range of 270-280. Additionally, if it loses 10-20 more seats, the BJP would go below the majority mark of 272.
Though it’s not as easy as it looks theoretically and mathematically, but it’s also not something impossible. Subsequently, the Congress party believes that if in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, it repeat its performance of 2019 in 2024 elections, and is able to make gains in Karnataka, the party expects to bring the BJP below the majority mark in the Lok Sabha.
Furthermore, if Rahul Gandhi succeeds in maintaining the pace of the Bharat Jodo Yatra, as believed by the political pandits, it would be an alarming situation for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Likewise, the analysts believe that there are good chances for the Indian National Congress in Karnataka, and as Mr. Kharge is party’s new president, Karnataka may turn out to be the power centre of the Congress party.
While PM Modi is still the most popular leader in the nation, the fact that nothing is stable and nothing is impossible in politics, cannot be denied. Moreover, with the Bharat Jodo Yatra moving ahead, it would be interesting to see what happens when this yatra reaches Maharashtra, where NCP chief Sharad Pawar and former CM Uddhav Thakre will be joining it.
Tanishk A. Choubey
Political Analyst and Consultant